Permanent Reconnaissance, Interdiction and Strike Contour
A possible operational level application of current advances in drone technology
It seems from several current interviews of UA bloggers, military and businessmen that advanced application of drone technology is not coming soon.
Still I believe it is quite possible, with current state of technology, with only minimum gaps to close. But it seems there is no focus on those applications from people driving this process in UA.
The idea is to try and describe possible holistic application at operational level. One can call it an emerging doctrine for holistic application of UAS forces.
You may want to read this brief overview of involved technologies:
And then this overview of possible tactical formation changes proposed by Andrew Tanner in his pondering on current situation:
While I generally agree with bottom-up approach and some of his thinking, I still believe that current advances in drone technology should first materialise into a specific way of conduction of mass scale operations — doctrine.
Let me call it “Permanent Reconnaissance, Interdiction and Strike Contour”. While there is a known Reconnaissance and Strike Contour concept, there is a difference. That is Permanent and Interdiction. I will explain both, but consider those to be modified equivalent of A2/AD concept.
Permanent
The way current concept of “RUK” (Reconnaissance and Strike Contour) works is more about “fat” targets, MLSR, AD, Rocket launch platforms, air bases, etc.
When speaking of permanent contour, I am asking myself a question, what it would take to establish a detailed permanent 24/7 reconnaissance over certain area, identifying every military target and their patterns of movement?
How big could be that area? What are the factors that prevent from establishing that?
Domains
First let us look into possible domains of such recon.
It is quite a few, each one having its own field of application in a general task of recon:
Optical spectrum. General purpose of recon is to identify military targets in the otherwise civil environment. Think of how you say a military van, say delivering ammo or troops, from a civil car? Not only by outer appearances, but also behaviour, direction of movement, how people inside are clothed, etc. Proper classification of target requires combined approach.
Thermal spectrum. FLIR. Helps not only with night time recon, but also may help identify mock-ups vs real targets, etc.
RF spectrum. Every soldier with a radio station emits. Every command post and UAV launch point emits. Every radar, tank, EW device emits. Every drone with real-time connection to operator emits. And RF emissions can be detected from far away.
SAR recon. Allows to see targets behind green cover, masses of metal come out even in dense foliage.
Sound spectrum. Every weapon has its own specific sound, artillery, MLRS, long range UAV, machine gun, tank, jet aircraft, etc.
Recon payload carriers
Should it be a ground platform, air platform, naval platform, or a combination of all?
If we look at current platforms, we can see the many of then are often bulky, like for example radars, long range high quality optical sensors, etc.
On the other hand can quality be substituted with quantity? For example can 5 Gekatas be a replacement of stationary modern radar?
It seems, though it is not yet fully proven, that a distribution in space of several drones with comparably small payload, like 10 kg, can be nearly equivalent of such an advanced radar. So the overall solution is significantly more cost effective then most current solutions.
Sound tracking payload may be equivalent of artillery recon radar.
Optical, thermal and SAR require airborne solution anyway.
So let us consider that fixed-wing type electric or gasoline UAV with long air time and range is an optimal solution to be that platform, just let us for a moment forget about survivability.
Multi-Domain synergy
It is clear that combining intelligence from multiple domains would improve identification of targets.
For example, if optical observation identifies suspects for artillery pieces, when the sound of artillery shot is triangulated to the same location, that ensures that it is not a decoy.
Or, if optical observation identifies a building with people in military uniform coming and going, and then certain types of RF communications are identified to the same location, it could very well mean a command post or communication centre.
When one domain gives only partial assurance, combination of them significantly increases chance of correct target identification.
So it is clear that all of those domains need to be monitored at once, and combined stream of data mapped real-time for decision making.
Whether the process of mapping it is manual, automatic or semi-automatic is another question.
Survivability
For such UAV to survive, it should be desirably small enough to be almost invisible to long range radars. What it would take?
Each domain would require a certain mass of equipment, combining them together means larger airframe, larger value, lower survivability.
So let us say it is 5 types of UAV, maybe same platform with different payloads.
As a note recent sky battles over Ukraine shown, UAVs can get past radars, also because it is very risky to have them on all the time. Such high value target, ca be identified and tracked by other radars, and then will attract a log range strike.
Now having a small cross section is not enough. Every UAV that transmits data real-time emits RF. Passive radars can track such emissions very well, without being visible to enemy. Moreover, such emission can be a target of very simple miniature device that would know not location, which requires at least two such devices cross-tracking, but a general direction. In such way UA FPV drones now strike reconnaissance enemy drones. Firstly using RF orientation for general direction and then visual contact for final targeting, along with air burst.
So such UAV needs to stop emitting real-time. Or it will not survive. Is it possible?
It is possible, but difficult. It requires end device to pre-identification of target automatically and transmit data only then, in short bursts for confirmation and mapping. This presupposes some degree of AI technology onboard.
Is it possible? I would say that current state of computational onboard power in the form of high capacity SOMs, are barely allowing for this. But it is already possible, probably firstly at such low cost.
This will work for radars that are 150+ km from the front line. But what about medium (30-40 km) and short range (10-20km) AD/radars?
They would be capable of tracking even smaller UAV. The only solution is an active defence against such elements. So this should the primary/inseparable function of such reconnaissance contour, required for self-defence.
Interdiction — anti-air, anti-logistic, counter-battery
Any front line effort heavily depends on artillery support and logistics, also artillery support in itself is even more heavily dependent on logistics.
Let us say that a maximum range of artillery is 20km from the front line, and then forward ammo supply would not be longer then 20 km from there. So basically such contour needs to cover 50 km range behind the front line, plus 30-40 km for anti-air, so let us say target operational radius is 100 km.
Current models of UAVs like for example PD-2, are easily having that operational range, can stay 8-10 hours on the mission, VTOL, 11 kg payload.
Now, considering solution for strike capacity, while for anti-air and counter-battery long range MLRS is workable solution, it would not work for logistics, since those would be most often moving targets. Also interdicting logistics at such range would often be too late, the vehicle moved away, hidden, went out of range of strike.
The possible solution is “flying mines”. Basically it is the same as normal FPV drone, but dropped in advance in the staging area to wait for the target. And then once target is designated it starts to chase it. Those drones can wait for days on low power consumption until a target appears in range.
How they would come to the staging area? The same PD-2 can carry one such drone (weight 10 kg with 3 kg warhead) to the staging area. Basically that would be a 6th type of carrier, or combined with some other type, that have a smaller weight of payload, for example sound sensors. On each recon mission it would systematically drop such strike drone to the staging area or rather staging grid. Or if needed use it for a self-defence, like launching towards a radar or anti-air launcher.
The recon contour UAV would also serve as a connection point for smaller UAVs. Theoretically such strike drones could do without human directly flying it.
Communication and mission control
A larger UAV identifies targets and sends data including pictures and video extracts to centre for confirmation, continuing to track the target. Once confirmed, it commands strike drone to move in the right direction.
Larger UAV tracks target and continues to correct route for smaller UAV and strike drone is in visual range submits the visual clues for target. Strike drone continues the route until it finds and captures the designated target. Once done it completes the mission with a strike.
Those communication could go through mesh networks created by those larger UAV in the air. Those that are closer to the origin would transmit to control centres. So essentially no GPS, no GSM or satellite links will be used.
The connection would be encrypted and FHSS (Frequency-hopping spread spectrum) and thus combined with no direct real time control or video transmission would not vulnerable to EW.
Control centre would…
Define recon routes and formations. Check and confirm identified targets. Designate staging grids, confirm particular waiting spots for strike drones. Designate the size of strike swarm depending on the importance of target. Trace and identify logistics routes and logistic networks. Calling strikes on possible ammo storage facilities.
The idea is that enemy abandons front line effort in the sector, once working contour is established, since front line troops could not be supported.